After Israel’s attack on Hezbollah, Iran’s missile strike on Israel has raised global concerns. The U.S. promptly announced a military buildup in the Middle East, while Israel warned Iran of severe consequences. However, for a world recovering from economic downturns, such tensions are unaffordable.

By Sanjeev Oak

On October 7 last year, Hamas, a terrorist organization, executed the largest attack in Israel’s history, shocking the world and igniting fears of a third world war. In retaliation, Israel launched an all-out military operation in Gaza. From the outset, experts predicted that the Israel-Hamas conflict might extend to involve other Middle Eastern nations. With Hezbollah—an Iran-backed group—firing missiles at Israel, it became apparent that Iran might eventually be drawn into this conflict, and that prediction seems to be materializing. While Hamas and Hezbollah have opted for direct confrontation with Israel, the Houthis have disrupted shipping routes in the Red Sea, further destabilizing global supply chains.

As Israel conducts precision operations in Gaza, it has deployed forces in Lebanon to counter Hezbollah. Iran responded with missile strikes on Israel. The Israel-Lebanon border has been volatile since 1982, and Hezbollah emerged as a dominant force in southern Lebanon after Israel’s withdrawal in 2000. Much like Hamas governs Gaza, Hezbollah operates in southern Lebanon with Iranian backing, posing a constant threat to Israel due to its missile stockpile. Israel’s military action in Lebanon aims to neutralize this threat, but Iran’s missile attack signals escalating tensions.

Iran provides financial, military, and logistical support to Hezbollah while maintaining indirect aggression against Israel. Other regional powers like Syria and Saudi Arabia adopt similar stances. Following Iran’s attack, the international community has rallied behind Israel. The U.S. has decided to increase its military presence in the Middle East, intensifying global concerns.

Lebanon faces compounding challenges, including economic instability and political turmoil, which have allowed Hezbollah to grow. Israel has warned that Lebanon could face a fate similar to Gaza, where millions of Palestinians have been displaced. If Lebanon follows suit, a massive humanitarian crisis could arise.

An Israel-Lebanon-Iran conflict is unaffordable for the world. Iran, a major oil exporter, could escalate energy costs if this conflict intensifies. After declining to $70 per barrel due to low demand, crude oil prices are already rising over war fears. Past conflicts, like the Russia-Ukraine war, caused oil prices to spike above $100 per barrel in 2022, straining global economies.

Middle Eastern conflicts, entangled with the interests of regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia, have global implications. Iran’s support for Hezbollah worries Saudi Arabia, which strengthens its ties with Israel. Israel’s actions often aim to reduce Iran’s influence, but direct retaliation against Iran could escalate the conflict into a broader war involving other nations.

Despite diplomatic efforts from the U.S., Russia, and European nations, recent developments show a united front against Iran. As Israel’s closest ally, the U.S. is naturally positioned against Iran, evident in its decision to increase its military presence without consulting international opinion.

How Israel responds to Iran will determine whether the conflict expands beyond Lebanon. If Lebanon sees mass displacement like Gaza, Israel could face international pressure. The disruption to energy supplies highlights the importance of Middle Eastern oil reserves, which are critical to global energy markets.

The conflict underscores the importance of groups like Hezbollah in geopolitics. Their capacity to wage war has reshaped concepts of sovereignty, security, and international relations. This crisis puts issues like regional stability and energy security back in focus.

India is making efforts to establish peace in the Middle East. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s immediate communication with Israeli PM Netanyahu highlights India’s proactive role. Reducing the threat of a broader global conflict is crucial, and the world looks toward nations like India for leadership in these troubled times.

India-Iran Relations

If Iran gets drawn into this conflict, it could adversely affect India. Iran, governed by an administration that defies U.S. influence, is a strategic partner for India. Tehran’s cooperation allows India direct access to Central Asia through Iran, bypassing Pakistan. With Russia and Iran sharing friendly ties, the U.S. may aim to disrupt this partnership. Israel’s actions could be part of American efforts to bring Iran under its control, indirectly impacting India’s strategic interests.