By Sanjeev Oak

As India emerges as a global superpower, questions are being raised about whether its regional influence is diminishing. While factors that boost India’s global stature are evident, the dynamics within its immediate neighborhood tell a more complex story. The rise of India challenges China’s dominance, making Beijing increasingly uneasy.

On the international stage, India’s presence has grown significantly over the past two decades. It has successfully hosted pivotal events like the G20 Summit and received invitations to the G7 meeting. Though not a permanent member of the UN Security Council, India plays a vital role in organizations like the Quad, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Western nations increasingly recognize India as a crucial global force, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, which is central to global strategic stability.

However, as India’s global importance rises, some analysts believe its regional influence in South Asia is waning. Comparing India’s current role to its dominance during the Cold War or China’s regional sway today reveals a decline. Several factors contribute to this shift, which could eventually impact India’s global positioning.

Interestingly, the very reasons for India’s growing international prominence are diminishing its regional sway. The United States’ withdrawal from South Asia and China’s attempts to fill the void are challenging for India. Yet, Western powers, eager to counterbalance China’s rise, are forging closer ties with India, recognizing its strategic location in the Indo-Pacific.

China’s ascent is often cited as a major reason for India’s regional struggles. The growing competition between the two powers in South Asia highlights this tension. For example, China’s construction of a road in the Shaksgam Valley, part of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, drew sharp criticism from India. This area, illegally ceded to China by Pakistan in 1963, remains a contentious issue.

China is leveraging its financial resources to influence India’s neighbors, attempting to bring them into its sphere of control. Nations like Sri Lanka and Pakistan have become entangled in China’s debt traps, which India has sought to counteract through timely economic assistance and strategic alliances.

India’s approach has always been rooted in diplomacy and non-aggression. Unlike China, India has never intimidated its neighbors. When Sri Lanka faced economic challenges due to Chinese loans, India extended financial aid. Yet, India’s shift toward the Indo-Pacific, coupled with the U.S. retreat from South Asia, has tilted the regional balance in China’s favor.

The geopolitical landscape of South Asia has transformed dramatically in recent years. While India has refrained from direct competition with China, its independent policies have unintentionally undermined Beijing’s ambitions. For instance, India’s emergence as a global manufacturing hub is threatening China’s economic dominance. Additionally, India’s burgeoning population now surpasses China’s, offering unique demographic advantages.

Over the past decade, India has invested heavily in strengthening relations with its neighbors and other global powers. Efforts to establish closer ties with Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh are yielding results. Simultaneously, India enjoys the support of Western nations, including the U.S., Japan, and Australia. The growing rift between the U.S. and China further bolsters India’s position.

In the maritime domain, India’s role is pivotal. Its recent export of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines underscores its commitment to regional security. The Indo-Pacific region has witnessed closer India-Philippines ties, fueled by shared concerns over China’s territorial ambitions.

Strategic Alliances Against Expansionism

Both India and the Philippines face territorial disputes with China. While the Philippines challenges China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, India contends with Chinese provocations along their shared border. These shared challenges have laid the foundation for stronger strategic cooperation between the two nations.

The growing India-Philippines defense partnership, marked by joint military exercises and arms deals, signals a robust security collaboration. Initiatives like the India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and the India-Philippines Tech Summit aim to deepen economic ties and reduce dependence on China. Both nations are active participants in regional groupings like the Quad, which seeks to uphold a rules-based Indo-Pacific framework.

India’s rise as a global power offers a viable counterbalance to China’s influence. However, the effectiveness of India-Philippines ties in curbing Chinese expansion will depend on solidifying economic and security cooperation.

As India balances its global ambitions with regional realities, it must adopt a more assertive foreign policy to counter China’s expansionism. Its strategic ties with nations like the Philippines exemplify a broader effort to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific while curbing China’s hegemonic aspirations.

India’s ascent is not just a challenge for China but also a testament to its ability to harmonize regional and global interests, making it a key player in shaping the 21st-century geopolitical order.