Bharat News and Analysis Deep Insights
By Sanjeev Oak
As the United States approaches its presidential elections, the race is heating up between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democrat contender Kamala Harris. Polls suggest Trump has a stronger chance of winning, but Harris remains a formidable opponent with equal footing in public opinion surveys. For India, the stakes are high, and a victory for Trump, known for his “America First” policy, might align better with India’s strategic interests.
The outcome of this election will resonate globally, influencing geopolitics, crude oil prices, and defense technology. Trump’s presidency could bolster India’s position on these fronts. With a 56.5% probability of victory compared to Harris’s 43.5%, according to recent reports, Trump seems poised for a comeback. The official results will be announced on November 6 at 8:45 AM. In a world fraught with geopolitical tensions—ranging from the political unrest in Bangladesh to the precarious environment in Southeast Asia—America’s leadership will have direct implications for India.
India’s Interests and the Candidates’ Diverging Visions
Both Trump and Harris bring contrasting approaches to U.S.-India relations. Trump’s past tenure was characterized by tariffs and protectionist policies, which aligned with his “America First” vision. While these measures strained India’s export-driven industries like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT, they also inflicted a more significant blow to China, indirectly benefiting India by curbing its regional rival’s economic momentum.
Conversely, Harris is expected to advocate for global cooperation, including strengthening international institutions like the World Trade Organization. While this could create an equitable trade environment, her administration may not prioritize India’s strategic needs as robustly as Trump’s. President Biden’s administration, for instance, delayed key agreements with India, reflecting a cautious approach that might persist under Harris.
Immigration and Trade Dynamics
Trump’s strict immigration policies, including H-1B visa restrictions, previously hurt Indian IT professionals. However, during his campaign, he has repeatedly emphasized his strong ties with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, indicating potential policy shifts favoring India. Trump’s staunch stance against China could open new opportunities for Indian businesses aiming to expand globally.
Harris, on the other hand, may focus on broader immigration reforms and fostering international collaborations. While this could benefit Indian professionals, her inclination toward China might undermine India’s growing influence as a manufacturing hub.
Economic and Geopolitical Stakes
India, now the fifth-largest economy and rapidly advancing toward becoming the third-largest, plays a critical role in the global economy. With a 16% contribution to global GDP, India is indispensable to America’s strategic calculus. Trump’s emphasis on reducing domestic manufacturing costs could encourage U.S. companies to invest in Indian production centers, strengthening bilateral trade.
Furthermore, as the Biden administration recently sanctioned Indian firms engaged in trade with Russia, it’s clear that the Democrats’ China-friendly policies could marginalize India’s strategic autonomy. In contrast, Trump’s alignment with Modi’s nationalist vision positions India as a natural ally in countering China’s expansionist ambitions.
A Natural Partnership
Trump has repeatedly highlighted India as a “natural partner,” sharing his “nation-first” ideology with Modi. This alignment could deepen U.S.-India ties, fostering collaborations in trade, defense, and technology. For the U.S., India’s vast market and young workforce are vital for American businesses seeking growth. Strengthening these ties could mitigate America’s domestic economic challenges, including the looming threat of recession.
The Case Against Harris
While Harris’s policies may appear beneficial on the surface, her administration’s China-leaning tendencies could create challenges for India. Recent events, such as the Biden administration’s delayed technology transfers and tacit support for political shifts in Bangladesh, underscore this concern. The U.S.’s selective response to human rights violations against Hindus in Bangladesh also raises doubts about Harris’s commitment to India’s broader interests.
Conclusion
Trump’s pragmatic nationalism and strong stance against China make him an ideal candidate for India. While his policies might present short-term challenges for some sectors, his long-term vision aligns with India’s strategic and economic goals. Harris’s liberal approach, though appealing, risks emboldening China, a move detrimental to India’s aspirations as a global power.
In a world of complex geopolitics, India needs a partner who recognizes its potential and supports its ambitions unequivocally. Trump’s hardline approach, despite its controversies, could be the catalyst for India’s rise on the global stage.
