From Global Uncertainty to Economic Resilience
By Sanjeev Oak
Amid widespread global uncertainty and volatility, India’s economy is set to grow at 6.3 per cent, according to a United Nations report. Ratings agency Moody’s shares the optimism, noting that even sustained tensions with Pakistan will have no material impact on India’s economic trajectory.
“India will remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world,” says the UN forecast.
This bullish projection comes against a backdrop of global headwinds — the Russia-Ukraine war, the bloody Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, persistently high interest rates, China’s slowdown, and Taiwan Strait tensions. While the world economy is expected to expand by just 2.8 per cent, India continues to outperform, leaving even seasoned analysts surprised.
Demand at Home, Stability in Policy
With 1.4 billion people, India is the largest consumer market in the world. Over 60 per cent of its GDP is driven by domestic demand, insulating it from sharp export slowdowns.
Over the past decade, central government schemes have pulled millions out of poverty. Rapid urbanisation has blurred rural-urban divides, while a rising middle class with increasing purchasing power has powered consumption, boosting production and investment.
Massive public spending on infrastructure, roads, power, railways, and ports has catalysed private investment. Consistent policymaking — from GST to Direct Benefit Transfer — has improved tax collection and cut leakages. Public sector banks have been strengthened, NPAs reduced, and the fiscal deficit kept on a disciplined path.
“Policy continuity is proving to be one of India’s strongest economic assets,” notes Moody’s.
The Startup Revolution
India’s transformation into a startup hub has altered its global image. Once synonymous with poverty and unemployment, the country now boasts over 100,000 startups, including 130+ unicorns valued at over $1 billion each.
In 2023-24 alone, startups raised $40 billion and generated employment for more than 10 lakh young people. India leads in fintech and e-commerce innovation. UPI, the world’s most advanced payment system, processed 150 billion transactions in 2024, with digital payments penetrating deep into rural India.
Foreign Investment Flows In
Since 2000, India has attracted nearly $1 trillion in foreign direct investment (FDI), with $71.2 billion coming in 2023-24. Manufacturing saw a 69% jump in FDI last year, with seven sectors — textiles, food processing, pharma, electronics, auto parts, chemicals, and capital goods — earmarked as priorities.
“Global investors increasingly see India as the democratic alternative to China,” says Deloitte.
Apple, Google, and Microsoft have expanded their presence, and India has emerged as a focal point of the “China+1” strategy.
Resilience in a Volatile World
Moody’s notes that India’s minimal trade with Pakistan shields it from geopolitical shocks. Foreign exchange reserves exceed $688 billion, providing a strong buffer. Oil imports are diversified, with Russia now a major supplier and transactions increasingly settled in rupees, lowering costs and stabilising domestic fuel prices.
India is also investing heavily in green energy for long-term stability. Trade friction between the US and China has opened doors in IT, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Inflation remains within RBI’s comfort zone, and unemployment is under control.
The Bigger Picture
India’s growth model — turning population into productive capacity, demand into development, and governance into growth management — has made it a standout in a troubled global economy.
“While Pakistan knocks on the IMF’s door, India sits at the advisory table,” writes Sanjeev Oak.
As China’s economy slows, India’s steady domestic demand and policy consistency are positioning it not just as a growth outlier, but as a central pillar of global economic realignment.