Pakistan’s hollow threats expose economic desperation
By Sanjeev Oak
In the last 48 hours, Pakistan has issued three separate threats to India, warning of dire consequences if New Delhi suspends the Indus Waters Treaty. The bluster—from firing missiles at India to “destroying half the world”—has laid bare not only Islamabad’s growing helplessness in the face of a collapsing economy, but also its role as a pawn in the larger geopolitical games of the United States.
Pakistan Army chief General Asim Munir, speaking in the US, claimed Islamabad could unleash missile strikes on India and devastate “half the world.” His remarks—seen as a veiled nuclear threat—drew sharp criticism from Washington. Former Pentagon official Michael Rubin called the language “unacceptable” and reminiscent of Osama bin Laden’s rhetoric. Rubin demanded that Pakistan be stripped of its status as a major non-NATO ally and formally designated a “state sponsor of terrorism”—a move that would make Islamabad the first such nation in that category.
Indus treaty flashpoint
At the core of Pakistan’s threats lies India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. Signed in 1960, the agreement allocated the waters of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to Pakistan, while the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej remained with India. The treaty underpinned Pakistan’s agriculture, drinking water and hydropower needs.
But after the recent Pahalgam terror attack, India announced it would halt water flows, stating bluntly that “blood and water cannot flow together.” The suspension has already begun to bite. Reservoir levels in Pakistan dropped by 20% in June compared to last year, sharply reducing kharif sowing and hitting cotton (down 30%) and maize (down 15%) production. Agriculture accounts for 23% of Pakistan’s GDP—making the fallout immediate and severe.
India has coupled this with “Operation Sindoor”, targeting Pakistan’s supply lines and neutralising threats with missile strikes—some of which also affected American aircraft in the region. For Pakistan, the suspension of Indus waters is not merely a diplomatic setback but a direct blow to its food security and economy.
Washington’s double game
Munir’s rhetoric in the US, coupled with Washington’s silence, has highlighted American duplicity. While the US officially backs India in the fight against terrorism, it continues to view Pakistan as a useful pawn in its geopolitical calculus, particularly in relation to Afghanistan, Central Asia and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Recently, Washington even designated the Baloch Liberation Army a terrorist outfit—a move that served Pakistan’s interests.
Rubin questioned why senior American generals did not walk out of Munir’s meetings, calling the episode a dangerous signal of leniency.
Contrasting trajectories
As Pakistan marked its Independence Day on August 14, the contrast with India was stark. Born in the same year, the two nations have diverged dramatically over 78 years. India today is the world’s fourth-largest economy, a spacefaring power and a leader in digital innovation. Pakistan, by contrast, teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, crippled by debt, runaway inflation and the scourge of terrorism.
Analysts attribute the divergence to India’s inclusive democratic culture, investments in science, technology and infrastructure, and a pluralist ethos. Pakistan, on the other hand, has been mired in military rule, religious radicalism and political patronage of terror groups.
A warning ignored
India has long honoured the Indus Treaty—even during wartime. But Islamabad’s provocations and reckless threats are forcing a rethink. Under treaty provisions, New Delhi is entitled to fully utilise its share of waters and has already begun accelerating projects on the eastern rivers. If Pakistan continues its confrontational stance, experts warn, the consequences will be severe: food shortages, power cuts, water scarcity and political instability.
Threatening India may serve as domestic political theatre for Pakistan’s leadership, but it will do nothing to resolve its internal crises. India, meanwhile, has chosen a path of restraint and development—investing in water management, agriculture reforms, infrastructure and technology. With steady growth, it is poised to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy.
Pakistan’s leaders, it appears, have yet to learn that bluster does not substitute for governance.