De-escalation with China and the US Tariff Crosswinds

By Sanjeev Oak

The recent Jaishankar–Wang Yi meeting in Astana carries wider resonance beyond border stability. Coming at a time when India–U.S. trade tensions over tariffs are intensifying, the dialogue underscores India’s attempt to balance great-power equations, prevent escalation with China, and retain strategic space in an evolving global economic order.

When External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, the immediate theme was familiar: de-escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). But beyond the Himalayan terrain, the meeting carries implications for India’s strategic calculus amid tariff strains with the United States. India today stands at a crossroads where its continental challenges intersect with maritime partnerships — and where the balance it strikes will define its future role in global power politics.

A meeting beyond the mountains

India and China remain locked in a delicate disengagement process since the Galwan clash of 2020. While violence has been absent in recent months, friction continues in Depsang, Demchok, and parts of Arunachal Pradesh. The Jaishankar–Wang Yi dialogue underlines India’s insistence that normalisation of ties is impossible without peace on the border.

“Border peace is the foundation for normal relations; without it, economic and political ties remain hostage to mistrust.”

This meeting signals that while New Delhi will not dilute its stance, it is willing to keep channels open. For Beijing too, the imperative is clear: avoid fresh escalation at a time when its economy faces stagnation and Western distrust.

The American angle

What makes this engagement particularly significant is the parallel strain with Washington over tariffs. The Biden administration’s tariff recalibrations — particularly in sectors like steel, aluminum, and certain tech goods — pose a direct challenge to India’s export-driven growth ambitions.

For India, this creates a dual dilemma: how to press China for border stability while simultaneously protecting market access in the US. Both tracks are intertwined. A prolonged border standoff with Beijing risks diverting resources, while tariff escalation with Washington could strain India’s economic momentum.

“A tense border with China and a tariff wall in the US would squeeze India’s strategic space from both ends.”

Balancing between Washington and Beijing

India’s foreign policy in the Modi era has been to avoid binary choices. The US remains a crucial partner for technology, investment, and Indo-Pacific security. China, despite hostility, remains a major trading partner and a neighbor whose stability directly affects India’s security.

Thus, the Jaishankar–Wang Yi meet, though limited in scope, offers India breathing space. A relative quiet on the LAC allows New Delhi to negotiate trade frictions with Washington from a position of less vulnerability.

At the same time, the US tariff tensions push India to ensure that its border with China does not flare up unpredictably, lest it be trapped between two crises.

Strategic compass: Autonomy first

The wider message of this diplomatic choreography is India’s insistence on strategic autonomy. Neither tariffs from the US nor pressure from China can dictate India’s choices.

India has already signalled that while it values the Quad and deepening US ties, it will not abandon its independent outreach to Russia, West Asia, or even China when necessary.

“India’s strategic compass points not West or East, but firmly towards its own interests.”

This autonomy is precisely what gives New Delhi credibility as a global player — and what allows it to withstand simultaneous challenges from both Washington and Beijing.

Why this meet matters now

1. Border peace as leverage: India cannot project power abroad if the Himalayan frontier remains volatile. Stability here is a prerequisite for strategic flexibility elsewhere.
2. Tariff pressure from US: India must preserve goodwill with China to avoid encirclement, while it negotiates tariff relief with Washington.
3. Global optics: At a time when the world sees heightened US–China rivalry, India’s ability to keep dialogue open with both sides enhances its diplomatic profile.

The Jaishankar–Wang Yi meet, therefore, is not an isolated bilateral conversation. It is part of a larger geopolitical puzzle where every move in one theatre affects India’s options in another.

The road ahead

De-escalation with China does not mean trust; it means prudence. Tariff tensions with the US do not mean decoupling; they mean negotiation. For India, the art of diplomacy is to ensure neither front explodes simultaneously.

As the world heads into an uncertain phase of economic nationalism and strategic rivalry, India’s capacity to walk this tightrope will decide whether it emerges merely as a balancing power or as a defining one.

“The true test of India’s diplomacy lies not in choosing sides, but in ensuring no side can corner it.”