India charts its own course: Modi’s Japan–China diplomacy and the limits of U.S. pressure
By Sanjeev Oak
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan and China underscores a simple reality—India is not a pawn in Washington’s tariff games but a sovereign power shaping Asia’s strategic balance. The U.S. may grumble, but New Delhi chooses autonomy.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi departed Tokyo and Beijing after back-to-back meetings, one thing became clear: India is recalibrating its foreign policy to reflect its growing weight in Asia, not Washington’s insecurities. At a time when American officials like Peter Navarro reduce India’s energy strategy to “laundromats for Russian oil,” Modi has decisively demonstrated that India will not be boxed into Washington’s zero-sum framework.
“India will not be lectured into choosing between Washington’s paranoia and Asia’s prosperity.”
The strategic triangle
Japan and China, often viewed as rivals, remain central to India’s long-term interests. Modi’s outreach highlights three realities: Japan is India’s key partner in infrastructure and technology, while China, despite tensions, remains critical in trade and global governance platforms.
By balancing ties, New Delhi signals that its path is not Washington’s Cold War script of containment, but a uniquely Indian blend of strategic autonomy and economic pragmatism.
Trade over tariffs
While U.S. rhetoric grows sharper, trade numbers speak louder. India–Japan bilateral trade touched $24 billion in 2024, and Japan remains one of the largest FDI contributors to Indian infrastructure. On the other hand, China still accounts for over $118 billion in annual trade—unavoidable for an economy of India’s scale.
In contrast, U.S. tariff threats are not only counterproductive but increasingly irrelevant. Washington’s obsession with India’s oil imports from Russia ignores the fact that New Delhi saved nearly $7 billion in 2024 by securing discounted crude, which directly lowered inflation and boosted consumer welfare.
“Cheap Russian oil didn’t weaken India—it stabilized the world’s fastest-growing major economy.”
America’s selective outrage
Washington’s double standards remain glaring. The U.S. itself buys uranium from Russia, LNG from adversarial states, and maintains trade with Beijing despite talk of “strategic competition.” Yet when India protects its economic interests, it is accused of being a “laundromat.”
The reality is that India has used its energy savings to fuel growth, push digital infrastructure, and strengthen its defense modernization. Modi’s diplomacy ensures that India isn’t forced into Washington’s theater of contradictions.
Building Asian multipolarity
The deeper message from Modi’s visits is not simply transactional. India is stitching together an Asian balance where Tokyo, Beijing, and New Delhi coexist in competitive interdependence, resisting being dragged into U.S.–China polarization. This vision of multipolarity strengthens Asia’s autonomy and weakens Washington’s monopoly over narrative-setting.
A sovereign choice
India’s trajectory is clear: it will work with America when interests align, but it will not mortgage its policy autonomy to Washington’s anxieties. Modi’s Japan–China engagements are not a drift away from the West, but a reminder that India is too large to be dictated to.
“The U.S. may try to script Asia’s story, but India is already writing its own chapters.”
Final words
By engaging Japan and China on equal footing, Modi has projected India as a stabilizer in Asia—not a pawn in U.S. tariff wars. Washington can either adapt to this new reality of Indian autonomy or risk sidelining itself in a multipolar Asia.