{"id":1896,"date":"2025-08-20T14:27:12","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T14:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bharatnewsanalysis.com\/?p=1896"},"modified":"2025-08-20T14:30:32","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T14:30:32","slug":"trump-brics-and-the-flawed-premise-of-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bharatnewsanalysis.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/20\/trump-brics-and-the-flawed-premise-of-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, BRICS and the Flawed Premise of Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

(A counter to an article in The Statesman)<\/em><\/p>\n

By Sanjeev Oak<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Statesman<\/a> recently argued that Donald Trump\u2019s return spells doom for BRICS. This counter-view contends the opposite: Trump\u2019s transactional economics may inadvertently fuel BRICS\u2019 consolidation, testing America\u2019s leverage while pushing emerging economies toward deeper South-South cooperation.<\/p>\n

In a recent piece in The Statesman<\/em><\/a> titled \u201cTrump vs BRICS\u201d<\/em>, the argument was advanced that the return of Donald Trump to the White House spells renewed turbulence for the global order, with the BRICS bloc rising as a counterweight to an allegedly faltering United States. This framing, though rhetorically powerful, suffers from selective interpretation of economic data, misreads American resilience, and overestimates BRICS\u2019 cohesion.<\/p>\n

The truth is more nuanced: Trump\u2019s presidency is set against the backdrop of a United States that remains the world\u2019s largest economy, military power, and innovation hub. Meanwhile, BRICS, despite its ambitions, faces severe structural contradictions. Far from heralding the \u201cend of Western dominance,\u201d the current dynamics suggest a more complex multipolarity\u2014where BRICS\u2019 expansion remains aspirational, while U.S. economic fundamentals still anchor the global system.<\/p>\n

The Statesman\u2019s Argument\u2014And Its Gaps<\/h2>\n

The Statesman<\/em> article makes three core claims:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Trump\u2019s policies will destabilize global trade and accelerate multipolarity.<\/li>\n
  2. BRICS, with its expanding membership and push for de-dollarisation, represents a credible counter to U.S.-led global institutions.<\/li>\n
  3. The U.S. is in structural decline, while BRICS countries are ascendant.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    On the surface, these claims seem persuasive. Yet, each rests on shaky ground when tested against hard data.<\/p>\n

    The Dollar Is Not Going Anywhere<\/h2>\n

    The Statesman<\/em> piece highlights BRICS\u2019 efforts to settle trade in local currencies and to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. But the reality is stark: nearly 60% of global forex reserves remain in dollars<\/strong>, compared to less than 5% in yuan. Over 88% of global foreign exchange transactions involve the dollar<\/strong>, and more than 40% of international debt is dollar-denominated<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    BRICS members themselves are far from aligned on this issue. India has resisted the idea of a common BRICS currency, citing sovereignty and monetary stability. Brazil continues to peg its trade heavily to the dollar. Even Russia and China\u2014leading the de-dollarisation chorus\u2014settle significant transactions in dollars and euros because their currencies lack global convertibility.<\/p>\n

    As one IMF working paper noted recently, \u201cnetwork effects\u201d keep the dollar dominant: businesses, banks, and governments use it because everyone else does. De-dollarisation may make headlines, but the dollar\u2019s dominance is underwritten by deep, liquid U.S. financial markets that no BRICS member can replicate<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    The Myth of U.S. Decline<\/h2>\n

    The most glaring weakness in The Statesman\u2019s<\/em> framing is the assumption that America is in irreversible decline. Consider the numbers:<\/p>\n