The New Battle for Energy

 

By Sanjeev Oak

The global fuel market is once again in turmoil — and the United States’ latest sanctions on Russian oil giants may end up hurting the very stability it claims to defend.

Even after Washington’s repeated warnings, India has refused to halt its purchase of Russian crude. Ironically, this steady Indian demand has kept global fuel prices from spiralling out of control — a fact the United States seems to have conveniently forgotten.

By imposing sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two biggest oil companies, the US has triggered a fresh wave of volatility. Crude prices have surged, shipping and insurance costs have spiked, and importers are rushing to find alternatives. The development underscores a larger truth: energy is no longer just about economics — it is an instrument of geopolitical power.

“Energy is no longer merely an economic resource — it is a geopolitical weapon.”

The old playbook returns

Coercive diplomacy is hardly a novelty in Washington’s arsenal. For decades, the US has used sanctions, interventions, and regime changes to protect its interests — from Vietnam and Iran to Iraq and Libya. Whenever nations challenged its strategic calculations, they were pushed into economic or military crises.

Recently, the US deployed naval fleets in Venezuelan waters, ostensibly to curb drug trafficking — but the subtext was unmistakable: to protect oil routes and preserve influence in Latin America.

The latest sanctions on Russia follow the same pattern. By targeting Moscow’s energy exports, Washington is once again asserting what it assumes is its right to shape the decisions of sovereign nations.

“For decades, sanctions have been Washington’s most convenient export.”

Trump’s return, and the new oil calculus

The Ukraine war has become a proving ground for America’s renewed assertiveness. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly claimed he could “end the Russia–Ukraine war within 24 hours,” has now opted for an economic chokehold instead of diplomacy.

His motivations are not purely strategic. The American shale oil industry stands to gain from a tighter global market. As Russian and OPEC crude becomes costlier, US producers find more buyers — and global investors, seeking safety, flock to American assets.

At home, however, the US faces its own economic strains — soaring debt, political gridlock, and a federal shutdown that has left hundreds of thousands without pay. In that light, sanctions are as much about business as about foreign policy: a means to translate geopolitical dominance into commercial profit.

“Sanctions are not moral tools — they are economic instruments of American self-interest.”

India’s tightrope walk

For India, this new energy war presents both risk and opportunity. Nearly 40 per cent of India’s oil imports come from Russia, primarily through Rosneft and Lukoil. Sanctions could disrupt payments, delay shipments, and raise freight costs. Yet, it was precisely India’s continued imports that kept fuel prices stable through the last two years of global turbulence.

New Delhi has, so far, managed to maintain that balance — upholding strategic autonomy while keeping energy supplies secure. But the next phase will demand deeper structural resilience:

• Diversifying suppliers in the Gulf, West Africa and South America.
• Building independent insurance and logistics systems free from Western financial control.
• Expanding strategic reserves to cover at least 90 days of consumption.
• Upgrading refineries to handle multiple crude grades.

Such steps are essential if India is to insulate its energy future from external coercion.

“Energy security is national security — it cannot be hostage to political arm-twisting.”

Sending the right message

India’s stance has been firm but nuanced. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal recently noted that trade agreements “are not about tariffs or market access alone, but about trust, long-term relationships, and rule-based trade.”

That message extends beyond trade. It signals that India will not sign away its autonomy in exchange for temporary approval. Washington must recognise that India’s energy needs are not negotiable — they are fundamental to its growth and stability.

Even the US once admitted that India’s purchases of Russian crude helped prevent a global oil shock. To now punish that very policy out of political obstinacy is not leadership — it is economic vandalism dressed as virtue.

The road ahead

The world’s energy map is being redrawn — not by supply or demand, but by sanctions and suspicion. As the US tightens its grip on global trade routes and payment systems, countries like India will have to craft their own pathways to security.

In the long run, this confrontation is not about oil barrels or currency transfers. It is about who decides — who holds the power to dictate how nations light their homes and fuel their economies.

The battle for energy, once waged in markets, is now being fought in boardrooms, bank corridors and foreign ministries. Its outcome will shape the global balance of power for decades to come.

“India’s refusal to yield has kept fuel prices stable for the world. The new energy war is less about oil — and more about who controls the world’s levers of power.”