By Sanjeev Oak

The recent missile attack by Iran on Israel, following an Israeli strike on Hezbollah, has heightened global concerns. In response, the United States immediately announced an increase in military presence in the Middle East, while Israel warned Iran of significant consequences. However, a world still recovering from economic challenges cannot afford this escalating conflict.

On October 7th last year, the Hamas terrorist organization launched the deadliest attack in Israel’s history, shocking the world and sparking fears of a third world war. Israel retaliated with full military might in Gaza, raising concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict would expand to other nations in the Middle East. Hezbollah, a group supported by Iran, intensified missile attacks on Israel, fueling speculation that Iran could soon be dragged into the conflict — a prediction that now seems to be coming true. While Hamas and Hezbollah have chosen direct confrontations with Israel, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have disrupted Red Sea trade routes, further destabilizing global supply chains.

Amidst the precise military operations in Gaza, Israel has moved its forces into Lebanon to counter Hezbollah. Iran responded with missile strikes against Israel — its most significant intervention since the Israel-Lebanon border began simmering in 1982. After Israel withdrew in 2000, Hezbollah emerged as a dominant force in southern Lebanon, akin to Hamas’ control over Gaza. Backed by Iran, Hezbollah’s extensive missile arsenal poses a significant threat to Israel’s northern border. Israel’s actions in Lebanon triggered Iran’s direct response, underscoring Tehran’s role in financing, arming, and supporting Hezbollah. Historically, Iran avoids direct conflict with Israel, preferring proxy attacks via Hezbollah. Regional powers like Syria and Saudi Arabia have adopted similar indirect strategies.

Iran’s missile strike has galvanized the international community to stand firmly with Israel. The US decision to deploy additional military forces in the Middle East highlights Washington’s commitment to its ally. This growing conflict, however, is a matter of global concern.

Lebanon’s Crisis and a Looming Humanitarian Disaster

Lebanon faces deep economic and political instability, which has allowed Hezbollah to expand its influence. Israel has warned it could turn Lebanon into another Gaza. In Gaza, over 2.4 million Palestinians have been displaced, and it is estimated that their rehabilitation will take at least 12 years. If Lebanon experiences similar upheaval, the humanitarian crisis will worsen dramatically.

A full-scale conflict involving Israel, Lebanon, and Iran would be catastrophic. Iran, a major oil exporter, could disrupt global energy markets. Oil prices, which recently dropped to $70 per barrel due to reduced demand, have started rising again amid fears of war. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, triggering an energy crisis in Europe that led to economic recession. As the world’s economies attempt to recover, the Israel-Iran tensions have sparked renewed anxiety, evidenced by declines in global and Indian stock markets.

The Middle East’s conflicts are deeply intertwined with regional power struggles. Iran’s support for Hezbollah worries Saudi Arabia, which has strengthened its ties with Israel. Israel’s actions often aim to reduce Iran’s regional influence. However, a direct Israeli response to Iran could escalate the conflict further, potentially involving other nations. Such a scenario would have far-reaching global consequences.

Global Response

While the US, Russia, and European nations have sought solutions to the Israel-Lebanon conflict, recent developments have created a unified front against Iran. As Israel’s natural ally, the United States will inevitably oppose Iran, and Washington’s decision to bolster its Middle Eastern military presence underscores its strategic priorities. Meanwhile, nations like the UK and France have yet to take a decisive stance.

The extent of Israel’s response to Iran will determine whether this conflict remains localized to Lebanon or spirals into a broader war. Analysts suggest that Israel may face mounting international pressure if Lebanon experiences mass displacement similar to Gaza. Given the potential disruptions to global energy security, efforts may be made to contain Israel’s actions.

The Middle East’s oil reserves are not only vital for regional stability but also for the global energy market. Any conflict threatening these reserves will cause volatile oil prices, impacting economies worldwide. Additionally, this conflict has underscored the influence of groups like Hezbollah, which have demonstrated their ability to challenge traditional concepts of sovereignty, security, and international relations.

India’s Role in Ensuring Peace

India has actively sought to promote peace in the Middle East, a role that the world expects it to play given its stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swift outreach to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu highlights India’s balanced and proactive diplomatic approach. Reducing the risk of a global conflict remains the need of the hour, and a fearful world looks toward leaders like Modi to ease tensions.

Implications for India-Iran Relations

If Iran is drawn deeper into this conflict, India stands to lose significantly. Iran’s government, resistant to American influence, has been a critical regional ally for India, particularly for access to Central Asia. The United States, however, has strategic interests in weakening Iran, viewing it as an obstacle to its regional plans. By aligning with Israel, the US seeks to pressure Iran, potentially destabilizing the region further.

India has isolated Pakistan diplomatically and utilized Iran as a gateway to Central Asia. Iran also maintains strong relations with Russia, which the US aims to disrupt. By controlling Iran, Washington could effectively block India’s direct access to Central Asia, a strategic setback for New Delhi.

The global community must act decisively to reduce tensions, as an escalation in the Middle East would have dire consequences for energy security, economic stability, and humanitarian conditions worldwide.