India’s Resilience Amid Global Trade Turbulence
By Sanjeev Oak
Despite the headwinds from US protectionism and the US–China trade war, India remains firmly on its growth path.
As the world economy grapples with escalating trade tensions and policy unpredictability from the United States, India appears to be charting a different course — one marked by cautious optimism, market recovery, and emerging opportunity.
While major economies are slowing under the weight of rising tariffs and shrinking trade, India has not only withstood the turbulence but has steadily advanced. The resilience of its economy and the stabilisation of its financial markets are now prompting renewed attention from global investors.
“While the Trump tariffs shook global trade architecture, India has seized the moment to emerge as a viable alternative in global manufacturing.”
Trump’s Trade Doctrine: Uncertainty as Policy
Donald Trump’s presidency marked a decisive break from conventional trade diplomacy. His “America First” doctrine brought with it a wave of import tariffs and unilateral decisions, announced often via social media without warning or consultation. Long-standing allies such as Canada and the European Union found themselves caught off guard as steel and aluminum exports were hit by new U.S. levies.
The fallout was swift. Global markets grew volatile, and a climate of distrust began to take root. In attempting to address trade imbalances and repatriate manufacturing jobs, Trump’s approach instead destabilized global supply chains and dented America’s own credibility as a trading partner.
Retaliation and Repercussions
Trump’s tariffs provoked a cascade of countermeasures. Countries like China hit back with their own duties, particularly targeting sensitive U.S. exports like agricultural goods. American farmers — reliant on access to foreign markets — found themselves squeezed, with many experiencing sharp declines in export revenue.
At home, the impact of higher import costs was felt across sectors. Inflation surged, consumers tightened their belts, and businesses struggled to manage rising production expenses. The result was a slowdown in international trade volumes and a loss of confidence in the predictability of U.S. economic policy.
India: Buffeted but Not Broken
India, too, was affected — especially by tariffs on steel and aluminum exports. Initially, these disruptions pressured Indian exporters and shook market sentiment. However, Indian businesses responded swiftly by exploring alternative markets. The government also began reinforcing domestic capacity and leveraging bilateral partnerships.
In an unexpected twist, India found new space to grow. As U.S. firms sought alternatives to China for sourcing pharmaceuticals, IT services, and textiles, Indian industries stood ready to fill the gap. Over the past several quarters, Indian markets have shown signs of stabilization. Foreign institutional investors — once cautious — are now re-entering with optimism.
The Long-Term Opportunity
Trump’s erratic trade policy may have inflicted short-term damage globally, but for India, it may prove a catalyst. The drive among many nations to diversify their supply chains — spurred by geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic — plays to India’s strengths.
India’s expanding manufacturing base, demographic advantage, and policy shifts such as Make in India and Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) position the country to benefit from this reshuffling of global trade.
While the global economic order reels from disrupted alliances and weakening institutions, India’s economic performance offers a rare glimmer of continuity.
Seizing the Strategic Moment
India is not merely weathering the storm — it is recalibrating. It is realigning its trade priorities, upgrading infrastructure, and leveraging its diplomatic capital to carve a place as a key player in global production networks.
Trump’s tariff wars may have shaken the pillars of globalization, but they have also created a space where emerging economies like India can assert themselves. The world may be slowing, but India’s forward march continues — steady, deliberate, and increasingly strategic.